Thursday, 30 December 2010

Future Past: 2011

Weather 2011

If the weather in January follows (or at least reverts to) the pattern of January 2010, we can expect weather something like the pictures in this post.

Economy 2011

A major political topic sitting here in Poland, with its feeling of teetering on the brink of crisis and doom, is the heavy level of Polish debt and excessive government spending (with the inevitable why don't they spend money on what I want thown in for good measure). Polish Market Online provides a welcome note of sanity in reporting what the real experts say.

Euler Hermes, the worldwide leader in credit insurance, has raised Poland's rating from the level B to BB ... In 2009 ... real GDP grew by 1.7 percent. In 2010-2011, this ... should increase at ... 3.5 percent per year. Inflation is under control, the current account deficit has declined and foreign debt remains at a decent level. Poland has ... access to the flexible credit line of the International Monetary Fund, which is offered only to the strongest economies. Systemic risk of the political instability is low, but still requires caution in managing the fiscal situation ...

... Moody's believes that the A2 rating for the Polish debt in foreign and domestic currency, reflects the resilience of the Polish economy. ... Fiscal incentives have led to the increased budget deficits and public debt. The elections in 2011 mean that a significant deficit reduction will not begin before 2012. Currently neither the deficit nor debt are on the excessive level and the government enjoys the confidence of the financial markets. ... GDP growth in 2010 will reach 3.4 percent, and, in 2011- 3.7 percent. The deficit of the general government in 2011 will reach 6.7% of the GDP, and its debt will reach 57.4 percent of the GDP. ... The rating will remain stable if nothing unusual happens in the next 18-20 months. At the moment Poland has a very good access to the wider financial markets - deep domestic market and high credibility in the eyes of the foreign investors.

Crisis! What crisis!

Famous Polish Products 2011

What Polish products will be famous in 2011? Food and drink (mushrooms and asparagus, being some of the less obvious); furniture; and automotive parts immediately spring to mind. There have been lots of major inward investments, but I'm not sure what or how important they are. A Polish Market Online report on exports to France help me here.

... the Polish Embassy in Paris, reported that Polish-French trade for [2010 was] ... 14 billion euros ... The positive balance ... EUR 2 billion.

More than half the value of the Polish export to France are the products of electromechanical sector, including industrial machinery, measuring instruments, tools, appliances, and automotive equipment such as engines, gearboxes, car seats, as well as metallurgical and chemical products.

A new trend in France is the growing sale of Polish food - more often organic. Polish vegetables, fruits (especially strawberries), fruit juices and Polish cold cuts- mainly sausages and hams, are selling well on the French market. Even faster growing ... is the export of the wood-paper sector ... related to ... Polish construction or repair companies [working in France]. ...

Back to the weather

The slideshow below - click on the black surround first - shows changing weather in Młochów from November 2009 to January 2010. To see it better, go to, where you click on 'Slideshow'.

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