Thanks to Michael Dembinski of W-wa Jeziorki for his comment on the last post:
"Unemployment in the regions where the investment is coming (near Poznan and Katowice) is in low single digits. Like in other SEZs [Special Economc Zones], workers will probably be bused in from a two-hour travel time radius.
Poland's unemployment picture is the mirror of the UK's - extremely low urban joblessness with stratospheric (25%-35%) rural jobless. Did you know that 49% of Poland's unemployed (and some 60% of long-term unemployed) are ze wsi? Not small town, but wieś. How do you mop that up,other then let time and foreign investors' minibuses do their bit?" (Steve - In case its not obvious, Wsi and Wies are rural villages and communities - although it also means the countryside more generally.)
He makes an important point. Although there is urban drift, Polish people tend to stick to their home town or village. A recent survey showed that people who move to the city and take up full time employment normally still return to the place they come from. If you have worked with Polish people, there is a strong likelihood that what they are doing for the weekend, will be "going home". Since, especially on the eastern half of Poland, their are few train lines serving rural areas, commuting has to be done by road, which can take hours and hours. For the rural unemployed, a reliable car is often not available or affordable.
However, I have to disagree with Michael about reliance on foreign investor's minibuses. Despite the above, there is a surprisingly high level of commuting from rural areas to major towns and employment centres. Coaches and minibuses pour into Warsaw every morning from places that are hours away. It used to take me at least an hour and a half driving between Warsaw and Kielce ( a large town) out of the commuting period or travelling in the opposite direction. Even so, early every morning there are a queue of mini-buses outside Kielce railway station for Warsaw workers - it is cheaper than the train. Arriving at the station were feeder minibuses from villages off the main road routes. Another example: I once took a bus from a village outside Rzeszów (Rshe-shoov - a large town in the South-East) to Warsaw - some 3 to 4 hours journey time, which was packed with people on the late worker's shift. (The next bus was normally quieter, I was told, but I had an early, Monday morning meeting - bad idea.)
This willingness of people to spend inordinate amounts of time travelling to get to work, is, for me, an amazing indicator of Polish determination to work. It is therefore, another indicator of the inevitability of Polish economic success. (The result of a bad/good unemployment benefit system?)
There is more... Scattered in and around Warsaw there are large numbers of workers' hostels. Some are urban buildings, but where I live there are large number of rural places offering accommodation used by workers. The workers on this estate come from villages around Rzeszów and live here for two weeks in an 'Agro-tourism' centre, having every second Monday off so that they can go home for the weekend. (Agro-tourism has nothing to do with agriculture, by the way.) Whilst I know there are workers' hostels in England, the number here seems much larger. All in all, the whole system is in place to cater for people moving from the countryside to large towns for work.
As an aside, and I don't want to question the validity the general principle of Michaels' statement about rural unemployment, Poland's largest village (wies) has a population of 7,000, is indistinguishable from Warsaw in terms of urban spread and is within Warsaw's internal tram and bus service. One of the problems of driving long distances in Poland is that many of the main roads go through village after village, where the roads narrow and twist and there is the general need to go slowly. Although there are many truly rural communities away from the main access routes, I wonder how much the statistics of unemployment cover communities with real difficulties in getting transport to work even if people have the willingness to spend their time doing so. I don't want to be convinced by media reporting of the 'useless' unemployed in England, but to the extent it is real, is it this willingness that makes the fundamental difference?
As a final aside, one of the aims of the Communist system - everyone has a job - was to provide employment in or close to rural areas. Most of this inefficiency failed when capitalism arrived. If they had forcibly removed everyone to urban areas, as the hard hearted manipulators we are taught they were, things might be easier today.
Thursday, 9 September 2010
Wednesday, 8 September 2010
Inward Investment Pearl: LG not Tea
Basia called me over to the TV yesterday to tell me that Twinings (pronounced as 'twine' not 'twin'), the British tea company, was transferring its production from England to Poland because the company could not get the workers it wanted in England. This had caused an uproar in the British press based on the principle that tea was fundamentally a traditional British tipple and the idea of it being moved abroad was a blow to national pride (or something like that).
I would have expected her then to start crowing about how much better Polish workers are than English and that Britain is going down the pan, etc. As an immediate reaction, this sounds pretty convincing. However, she was more interested in the Scottish Queen watching the Highland Games with a hole in her shoe and then two naked bottoms. We didn't have a chance to have a heated discussion.
However, how well does this reflect on Poland compared to Britain? I know nothing about Twinings and nothing more than she told me about the move to Poland. On the face of it, however, tea production is basically a matter of shoving tea and empty packaging in at one end of the factory and pulling it out at the other end with the tea in the packing. Most of the detailed work will be done by machinery. Although there will be a few quality jobs, the bulk of employment will be low skilled. Poland is probably the new site because it is a cheap, low cost economy with good subsidies. England is now unsuitable because it is a high cost advanced economy, where only higher value added and higher profit manufacturing processes can suitably be placed. (I have to smile when I think this, but that's the theory.) Whilst the investment is presumably good for Poland, it still labels it as a less advanced economy.
So I tried to tell Basia about the new LG - the Korean company - investment in an R&D Centre in Poland, winning against England. (I think I saw this in one of the Gazeta Wyborcza Polish newsletters - see Gazeta Wyborcza Newsletter Registration, but I'm not sure.) She was focused on other things, as mentioned above, but there was no reason for her to be interested. However, for anyone who has worked on economic development and inward investment issues, this is far more important.
R&D Centres are the Crowns amongst the jewels of inward investment projects. Nothing is certain, but they anchor existing production projects in the country and give promise of preference for further ones. Whilst the company wishes to use the higher level technical capabilities of the chosen country, there is always enhancement of the technical capabilities of the country itself. The knock-on effect of utilisation of local suppliers will generally be expected to be increased, use of local higher value added supplied required and the technical capabilities of those suppliers also increased. So on, and so forth.
Now we, in Britain, used to - and presumably still do - consider ourselves the prime candidate for such projects, with an automatic advantage over other EU countries. English as the international business language; a reputation of having the most flexible approach to business by, and the highest quality of, research institutions; a positive government approach to business, which was equally (if not more) friendly to foreign companies; etc. For Poland to go head to head with England as a site and win is an enormous triumph. This puts Poland fully in the league of the big players in Europe - the most competitive and efficient. Those days when I was daft Brit who loved Poland too much and thought it brilliant and inevitably bound for success have long faded, but its lovely to be right all the same.
Oh and, by the way, anyone who thinks that investments by Twinings and (as I saw today) Mercedes are great because of the horrendous level of unemployment, I'm sorry but I think you are wrong. At 9-10% (about the European average), in an economy that is undergoing rapid structural change, at a time when it's and the world economy are just coming out of the bottom of the economic cycle - the unemployment rate is low. Look out in 4 years to inflationary pressures and (inefficient, of course) severe tightening of monetary policy by the Central Bank.
However, this may be avoided. Poland still is undergoing structural adjustment in the pattern of employment. It is not so much unemployment, but inefficient use of labour resources and under-employment. This is especially noticeable in the small business sector ie most Polish owned businesses, and in the geographic distribution of (un)employment. If Twinings is locating, like Cadbury did a few years ago, in an unemployment black spot, it's direct and knock-on effect is greatly enhanced.
Mercedes is locating at the Katowice Economic Zone. Its years since I've been there. It was not doing as well as hoped at the time, but seems from headline investments to have done extremely well recently. I can't therefore help but suspect that the name of Mercedes is more important than the investment itself. However, for a more positive view get in touch with Elżbieta Bienkowska, Minister of Regional Development. She used to be Director of Regional Development (or some such title) in the Śląskie Voivodeship Office - for some reason I don't like the name 'Silesia'. If you do, please give Steve's best regards. (I'm just name dropping.)
I would have expected her then to start crowing about how much better Polish workers are than English and that Britain is going down the pan, etc. As an immediate reaction, this sounds pretty convincing. However, she was more interested in the Scottish Queen watching the Highland Games with a hole in her shoe and then two naked bottoms. We didn't have a chance to have a heated discussion.
However, how well does this reflect on Poland compared to Britain? I know nothing about Twinings and nothing more than she told me about the move to Poland. On the face of it, however, tea production is basically a matter of shoving tea and empty packaging in at one end of the factory and pulling it out at the other end with the tea in the packing. Most of the detailed work will be done by machinery. Although there will be a few quality jobs, the bulk of employment will be low skilled. Poland is probably the new site because it is a cheap, low cost economy with good subsidies. England is now unsuitable because it is a high cost advanced economy, where only higher value added and higher profit manufacturing processes can suitably be placed. (I have to smile when I think this, but that's the theory.) Whilst the investment is presumably good for Poland, it still labels it as a less advanced economy.
So I tried to tell Basia about the new LG - the Korean company - investment in an R&D Centre in Poland, winning against England. (I think I saw this in one of the Gazeta Wyborcza Polish newsletters - see Gazeta Wyborcza Newsletter Registration, but I'm not sure.) She was focused on other things, as mentioned above, but there was no reason for her to be interested. However, for anyone who has worked on economic development and inward investment issues, this is far more important.
R&D Centres are the Crowns amongst the jewels of inward investment projects. Nothing is certain, but they anchor existing production projects in the country and give promise of preference for further ones. Whilst the company wishes to use the higher level technical capabilities of the chosen country, there is always enhancement of the technical capabilities of the country itself. The knock-on effect of utilisation of local suppliers will generally be expected to be increased, use of local higher value added supplied required and the technical capabilities of those suppliers also increased. So on, and so forth.
Now we, in Britain, used to - and presumably still do - consider ourselves the prime candidate for such projects, with an automatic advantage over other EU countries. English as the international business language; a reputation of having the most flexible approach to business by, and the highest quality of, research institutions; a positive government approach to business, which was equally (if not more) friendly to foreign companies; etc. For Poland to go head to head with England as a site and win is an enormous triumph. This puts Poland fully in the league of the big players in Europe - the most competitive and efficient. Those days when I was daft Brit who loved Poland too much and thought it brilliant and inevitably bound for success have long faded, but its lovely to be right all the same.
Oh and, by the way, anyone who thinks that investments by Twinings and (as I saw today) Mercedes are great because of the horrendous level of unemployment, I'm sorry but I think you are wrong. At 9-10% (about the European average), in an economy that is undergoing rapid structural change, at a time when it's and the world economy are just coming out of the bottom of the economic cycle - the unemployment rate is low. Look out in 4 years to inflationary pressures and (inefficient, of course) severe tightening of monetary policy by the Central Bank.
However, this may be avoided. Poland still is undergoing structural adjustment in the pattern of employment. It is not so much unemployment, but inefficient use of labour resources and under-employment. This is especially noticeable in the small business sector ie most Polish owned businesses, and in the geographic distribution of (un)employment. If Twinings is locating, like Cadbury did a few years ago, in an unemployment black spot, it's direct and knock-on effect is greatly enhanced.
Mercedes is locating at the Katowice Economic Zone. Its years since I've been there. It was not doing as well as hoped at the time, but seems from headline investments to have done extremely well recently. I can't therefore help but suspect that the name of Mercedes is more important than the investment itself. However, for a more positive view get in touch with Elżbieta Bienkowska, Minister of Regional Development. She used to be Director of Regional Development (or some such title) in the Śląskie Voivodeship Office - for some reason I don't like the name 'Silesia'. If you do, please give Steve's best regards. (I'm just name dropping.)
Tuesday, 7 September 2010
(Non-) Jewish Life in Poland
I did the last post as a counterpoint to a series of posts that I want to do on Jews in Poland. The reason for the contrast is that during my 10 or so years here, as far as I am aware, Jewish people have played virtually no part in my life - that is to say statistically 0%. However, I am interested in Jewish influence here because interest in the social history, at least, of Poland - the way people lived - requires knowledge of the two nations who lived here; because the people of Poland are Jewish aware in a way that is strange to me; and because I want to understand more about the foundations of racial prejudice - put most starkly, how can one people (not Polish) set out to cold-bloodily, completely annihilate another.
The occasion was Sunday's annual Warsaw Jewish Festival. We have been once before, but this was an occasion to let Misia see how Jews contributed to Warsaw life. I don't know about Misia, but the festival completely failed to help me in this, but it was an opportunity for Basia to tell her how important the Jewish contribution was.
The festival is held in a small street of derelict tenements.
Whilst the dereliction may be fine as a memorial to those dead and gone, it gives no indication to me of the way that Jews used to live here. It is within the Warsaw ghetto area, but I don't even know if it looks anything like it looked then. Why derelict - surely it can't stay that way? Someone told me, or perhaps we speculated, that there may be difficulties with agreeing the ownership. However, even if not, what could be done with the buildings to retain them as a reminder to Jewish life and death?
If renovated, they would probably look no different to many other Warsaw terrace blocks. The shops below might be smaller than normal, but would there be any reason for a Jewish flavour to be retained? Although I assume that some of the people at the festival were Jewish, most of the people selling things could easily have been Polish for all I know. Even Basia, on whom I can normally rely to have a good idea about Jewish faces, only said that she particularly noticed one Jew. The occasion was largely a street market with only a partial Jewish character. There was music and dancing on two stages, but this modern style representation of traditional Jewish culture does nothing to impress on me the way life was. Indeed, the 20 or so people dancing on the stage showed such little rhythm and real enthusiasm that they didn't even give the impression of being a not-particularly-good, group of Jewish amateurs. Mind you, since I am interested in the extent to which Jewish life might have been distinguishable from Polish life, perhaps I am approaching the whole thing from the wrong perspective - the assumption that there was a difference.
One picture did catch my eye in the corner of a shop that was largely selling reprints of original French prints - presumably Jews. It was too far away to see clearly, but it looked old and seemed to show a man, I presumed a Jew, in the corner of a well-furnished room. Since many Jews were affluent, I thought this might give me a better idea of their past. My photograph was disappointing: nice painting though.
We did go into the synagogue, although the inside gave the general impression of a normal meeting place. It did remind me of some English Quaker halls in style, but without the beauty of their wood based decoration.
It has a fine front, but, apart from the Star of David, is not exceptional as a Warsaw building.
Perhaps what impressed me most was an indication of the closeness of Jewish and Christian lives in Warsaw, when looking from the steps of All Saint's Church across the building site where the square is being renovated. The statue of Pope John Paul neither looking away from, nor at the Jewish street.
Then we went to the Old Town and had lunch in the Maharaja Thai Restaurant, our regular eating place.
The occasion was Sunday's annual Warsaw Jewish Festival. We have been once before, but this was an occasion to let Misia see how Jews contributed to Warsaw life. I don't know about Misia, but the festival completely failed to help me in this, but it was an opportunity for Basia to tell her how important the Jewish contribution was.
The festival is held in a small street of derelict tenements.
 |
| From 2010 09 |
Whilst the dereliction may be fine as a memorial to those dead and gone, it gives no indication to me of the way that Jews used to live here. It is within the Warsaw ghetto area, but I don't even know if it looks anything like it looked then. Why derelict - surely it can't stay that way? Someone told me, or perhaps we speculated, that there may be difficulties with agreeing the ownership. However, even if not, what could be done with the buildings to retain them as a reminder to Jewish life and death?
If renovated, they would probably look no different to many other Warsaw terrace blocks. The shops below might be smaller than normal, but would there be any reason for a Jewish flavour to be retained? Although I assume that some of the people at the festival were Jewish, most of the people selling things could easily have been Polish for all I know. Even Basia, on whom I can normally rely to have a good idea about Jewish faces, only said that she particularly noticed one Jew. The occasion was largely a street market with only a partial Jewish character. There was music and dancing on two stages, but this modern style representation of traditional Jewish culture does nothing to impress on me the way life was. Indeed, the 20 or so people dancing on the stage showed such little rhythm and real enthusiasm that they didn't even give the impression of being a not-particularly-good, group of Jewish amateurs. Mind you, since I am interested in the extent to which Jewish life might have been distinguishable from Polish life, perhaps I am approaching the whole thing from the wrong perspective - the assumption that there was a difference.
One picture did catch my eye in the corner of a shop that was largely selling reprints of original French prints - presumably Jews. It was too far away to see clearly, but it looked old and seemed to show a man, I presumed a Jew, in the corner of a well-furnished room. Since many Jews were affluent, I thought this might give me a better idea of their past. My photograph was disappointing: nice painting though.
We did go into the synagogue, although the inside gave the general impression of a normal meeting place. It did remind me of some English Quaker halls in style, but without the beauty of their wood based decoration.
It has a fine front, but, apart from the Star of David, is not exceptional as a Warsaw building.
Perhaps what impressed me most was an indication of the closeness of Jewish and Christian lives in Warsaw, when looking from the steps of All Saint's Church across the building site where the square is being renovated. The statue of Pope John Paul neither looking away from, nor at the Jewish street.
Then we went to the Old Town and had lunch in the Maharaja Thai Restaurant, our regular eating place.
Monday, 6 September 2010
Campaign Against Media Bias
It is impossible to know what real life is like in another country unless you live there. Even then, you only really know your own life. The problem quite simply is that there is nothing interesting for the writer or reader in describing uneventful, non-stimulating, routine parts of your life. Hence, automatic media bias. So, if anyone asks what I do in Poland, my general response starts 'well, nothing much ..." while I try to think what they might like to know. However, what does nothing mean?
My school day morning routine varies little. Today the highlights were:
1. Woke up when Basia's alarm went off at 6:00am. I am usually up before this to prepare for No. 3.
2. Given my morning instructions and got up.
3. Made tea for Basia and myself. This is normally followed by massaging Basia's feet, but I was late - see 1.
4. Prepared Basia's lunch. This was cottage cheese mixed with yoghurt, adding thyme and basil from the garden plus a few other things.
5. Collected cakes from the garage fridge - it is Basia's Name Day on Wednesday and she is celebrating today at the main school where she works.
6. Made Basia coffee for the journey.
7. Put lunch, cakes, coffee and other things she wanted to take to school in her car.
8. Waved goodbye about 7:00.
9. Made Basia's mum tea and coffee for myself.
10. Woke up Misia 7:20 and then soon after made sure she had actually got up.
11. Made Misia's breakfast/mid-morning snack: ham roll.
12. Took Basia's phonecall and reassured her that Misia was awake.
13. Drove Misia to school, 7:45 and then returned.
14. Since it was raining, decided to turn on the computer and check email, news and various Polish English language blogs, sometimes making minor comments.
15. Part way through this took Mika the dog for her walk - normally timed about 10:00.
16. Writing this, half thinking what to write to my cousin Pam in Australia, with whom I haven't communicated for years, but who sent me a nice reply email this morning.
Scintillating stuff - and that's just the highlights.
Here ends the campaign.
My school day morning routine varies little. Today the highlights were:
1. Woke up when Basia's alarm went off at 6:00am. I am usually up before this to prepare for No. 3.
2. Given my morning instructions and got up.
3. Made tea for Basia and myself. This is normally followed by massaging Basia's feet, but I was late - see 1.
4. Prepared Basia's lunch. This was cottage cheese mixed with yoghurt, adding thyme and basil from the garden plus a few other things.
5. Collected cakes from the garage fridge - it is Basia's Name Day on Wednesday and she is celebrating today at the main school where she works.
6. Made Basia coffee for the journey.
7. Put lunch, cakes, coffee and other things she wanted to take to school in her car.
8. Waved goodbye about 7:00.
9. Made Basia's mum tea and coffee for myself.
10. Woke up Misia 7:20 and then soon after made sure she had actually got up.
11. Made Misia's breakfast/mid-morning snack: ham roll.
12. Took Basia's phonecall and reassured her that Misia was awake.
13. Drove Misia to school, 7:45 and then returned.
14. Since it was raining, decided to turn on the computer and check email, news and various Polish English language blogs, sometimes making minor comments.
15. Part way through this took Mika the dog for her walk - normally timed about 10:00.
16. Writing this, half thinking what to write to my cousin Pam in Australia, with whom I haven't communicated for years, but who sent me a nice reply email this morning.
Scintillating stuff - and that's just the highlights.
Here ends the campaign.
Sunday, 5 September 2010
Great Pictures of Warsaw
See AngloPolish Blog Warsaw Pictures for some really good pictures of Warsaw.
Friday, 3 September 2010
Dealing with Polish Flooding
With two extremely wet years in Poland, flooding has been a continuous news item. Whilst this is an appalling experience to go through, there are times when I can't help feel that some people have just ignored the obvious - building a house in a small hollow in a garden that turns out to act like a pond, for instance. However, what seems like good planning can go wrong. What do you do then?
I was considered silly when we first looked at our house in 2008. It was a normal, hot and dry summer, but I checked that the land sloped away from the house before taking any decision. There were two big thunderstorms after we had put down our deposit, which confirmed that the water ran away from us, down to houses near the road.
Through to May, 2009 we occupied the house and work in the garden proceeded. This is a view at the time.
Then the rain started in June. Despite all my forethought, the garden was flooding.
The problem was simply that when the fences were put in and the ground levelled, we were in a dip. The effect of the changed ground slope and its impact on water flow was not an issue I considered. I had already dealt with it and taken it off my mental checklist.
What to do? We don't want a regularly flooded garden. On the other hand, why automatically try and get rid of water when most summers we would want it. Indeed, since the house itself never seemed threatened, why be scared of water. So I decided to make a feature of the water - to create a layout which, when wet, would give us a water garden, but yet could cope with dry weather as well. I started to dig in spring this year.
In the photo below, there is a pond in the bottom right, designed as a water feature whatever the weather. The rest of the dug area is designed to fill with water during heavy rains. There is some further extension planned and we have a pump that can get of excess water. My theory that this will normally only be used a few times a year seems a bit of a joke at the moment.
2010 has also been extremely wet and this night picture shows the lawn flooded with water when the pump stopped working one night.
We recently got some plants for the 'stream' adding to the ones we had in the pond and you can now start to see what the water garden will look like when wet (after 36 hours of incessant rain and quite a bit of pumping).
Of course, having been a thought a bit crazy about worrying about flooding back in 2009, I am now thought to be a bit crazy about expecting Polish summers to be normally dry: my city ignorance, meteorologists and global warming being quoted at me. I wonder...
That's one part of waterlogging in the garden on the way to being sorted ...
I was considered silly when we first looked at our house in 2008. It was a normal, hot and dry summer, but I checked that the land sloped away from the house before taking any decision. There were two big thunderstorms after we had put down our deposit, which confirmed that the water ran away from us, down to houses near the road.
Through to May, 2009 we occupied the house and work in the garden proceeded. This is a view at the time.
Then the rain started in June. Despite all my forethought, the garden was flooding.
The problem was simply that when the fences were put in and the ground levelled, we were in a dip. The effect of the changed ground slope and its impact on water flow was not an issue I considered. I had already dealt with it and taken it off my mental checklist.
What to do? We don't want a regularly flooded garden. On the other hand, why automatically try and get rid of water when most summers we would want it. Indeed, since the house itself never seemed threatened, why be scared of water. So I decided to make a feature of the water - to create a layout which, when wet, would give us a water garden, but yet could cope with dry weather as well. I started to dig in spring this year.
In the photo below, there is a pond in the bottom right, designed as a water feature whatever the weather. The rest of the dug area is designed to fill with water during heavy rains. There is some further extension planned and we have a pump that can get of excess water. My theory that this will normally only be used a few times a year seems a bit of a joke at the moment.
2010 has also been extremely wet and this night picture shows the lawn flooded with water when the pump stopped working one night.
We recently got some plants for the 'stream' adding to the ones we had in the pond and you can now start to see what the water garden will look like when wet (after 36 hours of incessant rain and quite a bit of pumping).
 |
| From 2010 09 |
Of course, having been a thought a bit crazy about worrying about flooding back in 2009, I am now thought to be a bit crazy about expecting Polish summers to be normally dry: my city ignorance, meteorologists and global warming being quoted at me. I wonder...
That's one part of waterlogging in the garden on the way to being sorted ...
Wednesday, 1 September 2010
Happy New School Year
1 September: the first day of a new year at school, so its time to get soppy and think how quickly children grow up and sentimentalise over old pictures. So here goes.
Misia this morning, now (aged 12) a young lady - she must be, she has her first proper bra for school.
So slip back: 1999, 1 year old.
In 2004:
2005, with Babcia Stella (my mother) in Necton, Norfolk
2006: in Jelonki, Warsaw, dressed for a wedding:
2007: modelling her first communion dress:
2009, in Gdansk:
Misia this morning, now (aged 12) a young lady - she must be, she has her first proper bra for school.
So slip back: 1999, 1 year old.
In 2004:
2005, with Babcia Stella (my mother) in Necton, Norfolk
2006: in Jelonki, Warsaw, dressed for a wedding:
2007: modelling her first communion dress:
2009, in Gdansk:
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